Le coût de la révolution

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Analyse
2011-03
Al Ayam

Les causes économiques des mouvements sociaux que vivent les pays de la région redeviendront bientôt des défis auxquels devront faire face leurs états. La crise alimentaire ayant conduit à l’augmentation du prix du blé n’étant toujours pas réglée, les changements politiques ne pourront assurer une stabilité des prix des denrées alimentaires de base sans une stratégie dédiée. L’augmentation du prix du pain dans les pays nord-africains a dévoilé les difficultés qu’ont eu les régimes en place pour le soutenir afin de contenir la colère de leurs peuples.
En Russie, la pire récolte depuis 50 ans en 2010 a conduit à une hausse du prix de la tonne de blé sur le marché mondial (passant de 238$ à 270$ fin juillet 2010); des états importateurs dépendants et par ailleurs fortement endettés, comme la Tunisie et l’Egypte, n’ont pas tenu le coup. Vous avez dit effet papillon?
En tout cas les nouveaux gouvernements devront s’atteler à une restructuration totale de leurs comptes en y ajoutant la note salée du coût de la révolution...

Tunisie
- 2,58 milliards d’euros de pertes à terme pour l’économie, soit 4% du PIB.
- L’industrie touristique représente 6,5% du PIB et emploie plus de 350.000 personnes sur dix millions d’habitants.
- Une échéance auprès d’états de l’UE, des Etats-Unis et du Golfe, de 450 millions d’euros à honorer d’ici le mois d’avril.

Egypte
- «La crise a couté au moins 310 millions de dollars par jour à l’économie», estime dans une récente note le Crédit Agricole, qui a abaissé sa prévision de croissance du PIB égyptien pour 2011 à 3,7%, contre 5,3% précédemment.
- Une baisse de 6% des exportations égyptiennes a été enregistrée en janvier, selon le ministère de l’Industrie.
- Des dizaines de milliers de touristes à avoir quitté le pays en pleine haute saison (Le tourisme représente 6% de son PIB, 13 milliards$ en 2010)