Or en hausse, confiance en baisse

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Economie Globale
2011-05
Al Ayam

Le 18 avril, l’agence d’évaluation financière Standard & Poor’s a lancé un avertissement sur la note de la dette des Etats-Unis en raison de l’importance de leurs déficits budgétaires, ce qui implique qu’elle pourrait l’abaisser à moyen terme. Le cours de l’or a immédiatement bondi de plus de 15 dollars et a approché pour la première fois le seuil des 1.500 dollars l’once, grimpant à un nouveau sommet historique, L’annonce Standard & Poor’s a donc non seulement affecté le dollar mais encore provoqué une réaction à la hausse sur le marché de l’or redonnant à ce métal son rôle de valeur refuge par excellence en période de trouble. Il est notable que le métal jaune a déjà connu une hausse de près de 30% en 2010 et que ce mouvement s’inscrit dans la durée puisque le cours de l’or a été multiplié par cinq depuis dix ans. Cette hausse de l’or, et aussi de l’argent, est un signe qui ne trompe pas. La confiance est à la baisse et les investisseurs –y compris les pays émergents comme la Chine- se replient sur les valeurs refuges traditionnelles. Comme le notait l’éditorialiste du quotidien français Le Monde, le 24 avril, l’envolée de l’or traduit un sentiment de défiance généralisée « à l’encontre de certains fondamentaux de l’économie mondiale. A commencer par les Etats ». Le fait que les investisseurs, les banques centrales et les Etats aient besoin d’une valeur refuge démontre que l’économie mondiale est loin d’être sortie de la crise.